Platinum > Gold Crossover Model (50-Year Outlook)

Baseline as of today (Oct 25, 2025): Gold = $4,125.67/Oz, Platinum = $1,618.57/Oz (USD).

Executive Summary
This report models conditions required for platinum to exceed gold in price. Using today's spot prices as the base, we project Bear/Base/Bull scenarios for each metal and compute estimated parity years for select pairings. Key drivers for platinum outperformance include: persistent supply deficits, South African power/labor constraints, hydrogen and fuel-cell adoption, resilient jewelry substitution, and rising investor adoption. Gold's premium persists under safe-haven demand and central-bank accumulation; parity requires platinum growth to sustainably outpace gold growth for years.

Interpretation & Indicators to Watch
• If platinum compounds at ~5% (Base) vs. gold at ~2% (Base), estimated parity occurs around the early-to-mid
2040s.
• If platinum compounds at ~7% (Bull) vs. gold at ~2% (Base), estimated parity moves into the late 2030s.
• If gold runs at ~3% (Bull), platinum needs its Bull case to reach parity by ~2045–2050.
• If gold is subdued (~0.5% Bear), parity can arrive as early as the mid- to late-2030s under platinum Base or Bull growth.

Key catalysts: South African supply constraints; hydrogen/fuel-cell scale-up; jewelry substitution when gold is expensive; investor adoption (ETFs, coins/bars).

Risks: Faster battery-EV adoption curtailing autocatalytic demand; supply rebounds; global recessions reducing industrial demand; gold safe-haven surges prolonging premium.

Sources (live prices & context)
• JM Bullion live gold spot (Oct 25, 2025): used for baseline.
• JM Bullion live platinum spot (Oct 25, 2025): used for baseline.
• Trading Economics (gold & platinum context), APMEX, Bullion Vault, SD Bullion for cross-checks.